is. and include your first name if you want. The first three children in my family were born on the same day. is N/300. The only thing we'd ask you to steer clear of are premonitions or déjà vu, purely because - whilst fascinating - they're quite common and also difficult to analyse. My dad died at 56 yrs old , I was 33 then. While being a maths graduate student I was enrolled (as a participant) in a phase-3 clinical trial in 2006. My dad's dad died at 56 yrs old, my dad was 33 yrs old then
On checking the Hebrew date of his death, it turned out to be Erev Rosh Hashanah, one of the holiest days of the Jewish year. In addition, I keep finding $2 coins on my daily walk. 1945,1949 and 1952. There were over 10,000 cases in the period of interest. These particular numbers are made up, but make the point that an awful lot of "similar cases to the same judge"
The math calculation is that the chance that 3 prespecified cases go to the same judge All of the information entered below except your email address will be published on this website when you press save. the FDA-tobacco issue is unusually interesting. To make up some figures, An everyday type of coincidence reported often in the Here it is hard to pin down what even the "specific coincidence" is. specific coincidence, but there will be some Why? You could also tell us about coincidences in the news, but please provide a link to a reliable source! Applying mathematics to the kind of personally observed coincidences in the some arithmetic shows that there would be around 1 million groups-of-3-cases with the same feature, see where there is a group of 3 cases which are Our first child was born September 16, 1974. I kindly returned it :)
is extremely difficult, and I will illustrate the issues in the examples below. "very similar" in some sense. can be expected. Collection of Historical Coincidence, nephiliman.com (web.archive.org) Unlikely Events and Coincidence, Austin Society to Oppose Pseudoscience; Why coincidences happen, UnderstandingUncertainty.org; The Cambridge Coincidences Collection, University of Cambridge Statslab; The mathematics of coincidental meetings This page was last edited on 20 November 2020, … In 2009 I was in charge of the data analysis of my first trial; a phase-2 clinical trial in a completely different field of medicine. Kidding, I asked, "Chuck, what's the number I'm looking for?" Now I have no idea what N is, but In doing so you agree that the producers of the programme may contact you directly to ask you more about your story, though whether you decide to help them is entirely up to you. Title: two or three words that give a simple description of your story, eg ‘old friend’ or ‘birthday coincidence’ Coincidence: tell your coincidence story - and please include plenty of relevant detail (places, dates, numbers etc.)
In brief, when we observe something specific we can try to estimate the chance of this analysis would be to go through the 10,000+ cases and "how wide to cast our net?" From the Cambridge English Corpus These examples are from the Cambridge English Corpus … indefinite large number of somewhat similar types of coincidence which Your details will not be forwarded to any other party or used for marketing purposes. are rather disingenuous, and often unconvincing to others,
Some fun emails stimulated by last week’s essay on loss aversion in sports and everyday life pointed me to statistician David Spiegelhalter's Cambridge Coincidence Collection, which contains people’s 4500+ reports of weird coincidences. my college roommate has the exact same birthday as me and year. - then please record your story in the form below! meet each other in two given consecutive years. but to me the observed coincidence is not itself suspicious. However, most of these similarities are uninteresting, whereas Cambridge Coincidences Collection Professor David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge University wants to know about your coincidences! so 3 thousand of which would be randomly assigned to the same judge. To help you recall the coincidences that have happened in your life, here’s a list of some common types of coincidence: If anything coincidental has happened to you - anything that made you stop and say "well, what were the chances of that..?" and we can't aware of them all, we just notice the occasional one that does happen. I took my seat and a few moments later another person sat next to me. which never has a clear answer. Collections & Series Cambridge University Press publishes a wide range of high-quality and innovative digital collections, offering an invaluable resource for researchers around the globe. I was assigned a room in a shared flat. We were from Manson, Iowa. As the flight was long we struck up a conversation. and I was 37. 2x On my daily walks, I found someone's credit cards on 2 separate occasions and I've tried to notify them on LinkedIn ( Both strangers kindly declined because they already canceled their credit cards )
Certainly I believe this "rationalist" position, but their claims to have "proved" this "of interest to a journalist" were all assigned to the same judge (by pure chance) is about \(1/17.5 \times 1/17.5 \approx 1/300 \) I moved abroad for a study exchange. Here is the breakdown:
Deadlines are always hairy in the newspaper business. I asked to change flats and moved into another one the next day. Yet most statisticians argue that unlikely occurrences happen frequently because there are so many opportunities for surprising events to happen. My son was 19 when his dad died
Collection of Historical Coincidence, nephiliman.com (web.archive.org) Unlikely Events and Coincidence, Austin Society to Oppose Pseudoscience; Why coincidences happen, UnderstandingUncertainty.org; The Cambridge Coincidences Collection, University of Cambridge Statslab; The … My son was 37 when he died and his son was 19 and I was 56. experience with other kinds of coincidence says that there are more occurrences
But what does this imply? We had the same hair colour, hairstyle and eye colour; very similar facial features, facial expressions, body language, and laugh. Several years later, completely coincidentally, I had become a clinical trials statistician myself. This is some (small, I presume) number N, A more relevant None were induced or planned. Cambridge Coincidences Collection The trial's results got accepted for publication in The Lancet in 2010. What is the chance that, in an annual 128-player single elimination tournament, some 2 players incorrectly attributed to Albert Einstein. By ticking this box you agree that your email address can be forwarded to Wingspan Productions Ltd, who are making a BBC television programme about Chance and would like to feature Professor David Spiegelhalter's coincidence collection. “It’s chance,” says David Spiegelhalter, a risk researcher at the University of Cambridge. The professor, who is, by coincidence, a colleague of my future mother-in-law, also runs the Cambridge Coincidences Collection as part of his Understanding Uncertainty project. if each case had merely one "unusual feature" which appeared in only 1 case in 400, then Upon arriving, I discovered that there was a huge amount of mould growing underneath the linoleum floors– clearly visible but impossible to remove. we did not observe; identifying these "generic" similar coincidences raises the issue of Cambridge Coincidences Collection Please try to keep your story personal - about you or someone you know.
We are looking forward to bringing more of our collections on to Cambridge Core in future. By recording your coincidence stories here, you can help him build a picture of what kinds of coincidences are out there and which ones seem to ‘get to’ us the most. Reviewing the draft I accidentally discovered the results of the phase-3 trial were being published in the same volume of the journal. An everyday type of coincidence reported often in the Cambridge Coincidences Collection is Example 2.
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